Everything our analysts watch, on one page: how much of the UK register is under the glass, where it sits on the map, and how the three models read each corner of it.
Aggregates only — cohorts, counts and averages; never a named company.
the backdrop is a live slice of the ownership graph — neighbourhoods of companies that filed in the last day, sampled 14:31 UTC · company person controls filed today unlocked bigger = more ties · click any node to open its network
every bubble is a postcode area — size is the count of tracked companies · hover for numbers
average model percentile per sector against the register average — right of the line runs hotter, left runs cooler
calibrated 12-month probabilities, all scored companies — most of the register is quiet, and the shelves say exactly how quiet
what the register actually did — and how the models scored when graded on a year they never saw
5 046
companies took new secured borrowing — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 1.08% · predicted 69.1% → happened 72.4% · lift 67×
606
satisfied one charge and took another — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 0.24% · predicted 30.4% → happened 30.6% · lift 127×
1 070
moved from personal to corporate control — last 30 days, as filed
unseen-year test: base 0.33% · predicted
17.2% → happened 12.0%
· lift 36.7×
24-month label, 13 elapsed — realised is a floor
Live counts are register facts — charges as filed, control changes as notified (a mature company whose individual owner ceased and a corporate controller arrived in the same window); the freshest window always undercounts a little, since Companies House delivers with a lag. The test row is walk-forward: vintage 2025-06-30, models never trained on it, window closed 2026-06-30 — the full method and honest footnotes.
30 days of filings straight off the Companies House stream, and the companies that crossed a pattern threshold live
every daily and weekly read our analysts have filed — newest first
Accommodation and Northern Ireland emerged as the clearest credit signals at 2.0x and 1.8x concentration respectively; Telecommunications showed the sharpest exit lean at 2.6x. Today's re-ratings concentrated into a single filing batch, leaving these patterns early rather than established.
Real estate companies showed markedly elevated borrowing appetite in today's re-ratings — 1.4x over-representation in the credit-leaning cohort, spanning 212 companies. Exit-leaning signals contracted sharply from yesterday, with both movements reflecting today's concentrated re-rating activity and best read as early snapshot rather than established trend. Electronics manufacturing and information services also posted credit-skew at higher multiples (2.4x and 1.9x), though on minimal sample sizes; pattern matches concentrated on Sector laggard and Slow bleed archetypes.
Real estate shows outsized concentration in credit-seeking re-ratings today (1.4x share, 185 firms), but the movements are single-batch snapshot, not trend. Employment sectors show even sharper concentration (1.8x), though the signal rests on just 17 firms.
Business support services concentrated most heavily in yesterday's re-rated cohort leaning toward exit (2.8x lift, 7 firms), whilst wholesale showed 2.5x lift on the credit side. The overall credit-leaning count halved to 71 from 107, but both signals rest on thin numbers from a single day rather than trend.
Re-rating activity fell sharply this week, with both exit and credit-leaning companies down roughly a third from the prior week, though credit appetite is holding stronger in the register flow. Accommodation remains the standout on the borrowing side at 1.7x its share of this week's re-ratings and persisting now for three consecutive issues, with real estate and Northern Ireland also showing pronounced concentration toward secured-debt appetite.
Retail dominated yesterday's re-ratings, appearing at 1.9x concentration among exit-leaning companies and notably elevated in the credit lens (1.6x). Register movements totalled 590 companies across mostly sector-laggard patterns—a single-day snapshot, not yet trend data.
Yesterday's re-rating activity — compressed almost entirely into a single day — shows concentrated credit appetite in real estate (1.3x, 122 companies), hospitality (2.3x, 14 companies), and Northern Ireland (2.0x, 16 companies). These are early readings from a snapshot dataset; the pattern will clarify as the register continues.
Construction and civil engineering are disproportionately represented (1.4x–1.8x) in yesterday's credit-leaning re-ratings, suggesting elevated borrowing appetite in capital-intensive trades. The data spans a single day and should not be treated as an established trend.
Employment & recruitment firms account for more than double their usual share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings — a live-register signal worth watching, though with only 16 companies behind it, this is an early read rather than an established pattern. Legal & accounting shows a smaller but notable skew toward exit-leaning re-ratings; everything else, including the real estate credit cohort, is too close to its baseline share to call a story. Full detail on both cohorts is in the platform.
Accommodation took 3.3x its share of today's re-ratings on the credit-leaning side — the standout cohort in an early, single-day snapshot that shouldn't yet be read as a trend. Elsewhere credit-leaning signals skewed toward real estate and construction, with Northern Ireland and Yorkshire & North East the most over-represented regions; the sector laggard archetype was the busiest pattern match, at 96 live matches. Full company-level detail sits behind the dashboard for subscribers who want to act on it before the next register update.
Today's clearest signal is regional rather than sectoral: Scotland is taking 3.2x its share of this period's re-ratings among companies leaning toward credit, pulling 10 of the 60 credit-leaning names — though with 61% of activity landing on a single day, treat this as an early snapshot, not a trend. On the exit side, IT & software services is running hot at 2.8x its share (7 companies), with the North West and South West both modestly over-represented among sale-leaning re-ratings. Pattern-wise, "Sector laggard" was the busiest fresh archetype match (7), worth watching if it persists.
Printing & reproduction is turning up on both sides of the board this week, but it's the credit lean that's harder to ignore: accommodation (1.4x), real estate (1.3x, on a chunky 776 names) and printing (1.3x) all over-indexed among the 3,525 companies now showing live-event-driven appetite for secured debt. Exit-leaning re-ratings were lighter this week (2,401, down from 3,781) and clustered in professional and publishing niches — legal & accounting, publishing, information services — rather than anywhere geographic. Pattern-wise, sector laggard overtook quiet compounder as the most frequently matched live archetype, with debtor-heavy and the two distress-flagged patterns all landing in the 230-250 range — worth a closer look at the detail behind any one that touches your watchlist.
Food & beverage service operators account for 3.7x their share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings, with Yorkshire & North East and the Midlands both running hot alongside them — borrowing appetite, not distress, and worth watching for refinancing or expansion plays. Re-rating volume is thin and concentrated on a single day, so treat this as an early snapshot rather than a trend; the firmer secondary note is a cluster of "sector laggard" and "hidden distress" pattern matches (8 each) sitting just behind it. Full company-level detail — including the Specialised construction exit-leaning pocket in the South East — is in the platform.
Live-event re-ratings held up at 5,083, but the day's cleanest skew is small-sample: Civil engineering firms carried 1.8x their share of this period's exit-leaning re-ratings, on just six names, so flag it rather than bank on it. On the credit side, Real estate's 1.3x lift over 139 companies is a sturdier read — borrowing appetite, not distress — alongside a modest Northern Ireland tilt (1.6x, 14 firms). Everything here is a single day's snapshot; the sharper story is in the 86 fresh "sector laggard" pattern matches, worth a closer look before this settles into a trend.
Civil engineering carries the firmest signal today: 2.0x its share of this period's re-ratings among companies leaning toward credit, alongside a smaller but consistent tilt in employment & recruitment on both the exit and credit sides. Note this is a snapshot from a single day's register activity rather than an established trend. Separately, "Sector laggard" was the busiest live pattern match (98 companies), worth a closer look even at this early stage.
Real estate carries the day's clearest borrowing-appetite signal, pulling 175 companies into the credit-leaning cohort — a modest 1.3x lift but on real volume, alongside a sharper 1.7x skew in accommodation on a thinner 16. On the exit side architecture & engineering and motor trade both nudge past 1.5x lift, though with totals re-rating down sharply day-on-day, this looks early rather than settled. Worth flagging underneath: sector laggard and slow bleed pattern matches surged to 100 and 53 respectively — still a one-day read, but the kind of shift subscribers will want the underlying names for.
Real estate dominates today's credit-leaning cohort by sheer volume (211 of 853), but the sharper read is employment & recruitment, over-represented at 1.6x its share of re-ratings — worth watching, though on just 12 companies it's an early snapshot rather than a trend. On the exit side, publishing and architecture & engineering both show a modest lift (1.8x and 1.7x) against single-digit-to-teens counts, so treat as a lead worth a closer look rather than a confirmed pattern. Pattern-wise, sector laggard (90) and quiet compounder (59) were the most active live matches of the day — the detail behind these counts is where the actual names sit.
Register activity jumped sharply overnight (5,616 re-rated, against 330 the day before), and within that early snapshot legal & accounting and accommodation firms both took 1.8x their share of the credit-leaning cohort — worth flagging, though the base remains modest (18 and 12 companies respectively). The sharpest pattern surge was "Sector laggard", with 108 new live matches, well ahead of the next most common archetype. With 95% of this activity landing in a single day, we'd treat this as an early read rather than a trend — but it's the clearest concentration we've seen, and the full company-level detail is available to subscribers now.
Re-ratings jumped sharply overnight (594, up from 357), and the credit-leaning cohort grew with them: Wholesale and Specialised construction are both showing genuine directional skew toward borrowing appetite, with the South West, North West and Yorkshire & North East all pulling more than their share of this period's re-ratings. Exit-leaning activity cooled to 54 companies and stayed diffuse by sector, though the North West also shows up here — worth watching if that regional weight persists into tomorrow. Alongside the directional moves, live pattern-matching flagged a cluster of Sector laggard and Quiet compounder archetypes (9 each) plus Succession window, Debtor heavy, Cash-rich owner and Capex surge signals (6 apiece) — the full company-level detail is in the platform.
Overall re-ratings halved week on week, but Accommodation stood out on the credit side at 1.6x its share of this period's re-ratings — a small cohort (49 firms) worth watching rather than betting on yet. Real estate added scale to the same lean, with 665 companies showing rising borrowing appetite, while on the exit side Employment & recruitment (1.4x) and Architecture & engineering (1.3x) were the firms most often re-rated toward sale-likelihood alone. Underneath it all, 437 companies newly matched our "sector laggard" pattern and 219 triggered "Z distress" — the kind of structural signals that don't show up in the weekly aggregates but are exactly what the full feed is built to surface.
Volumes are a fraction of yesterday's and this is an early snapshot, but one cohort shows up on both sides of today's live re-ratings: real estate is over-represented among companies leaning toward exit (1.5x) and, more notably, among those leaning toward credit (1.8x) — the same sector, pulling in both directions at once on genuine register events, not stale guesses. With only 42 exit-leaning and 31 credit-leaning names behind those figures, treat it as a signal worth watching rather than a trend, and note six fresh "sector laggard" pattern matches sitting alongside it.
Accommodation stands out today: within the credit-leaning cohort it's taking 3.3x its normal share of re-ratings, albeit on a modest 16 companies — borrowing appetite, not a solvency call, and worth watching as the sample builds. Scotland also shows a firmer skew toward credit-leaning moves (1.6x, 46 companies), while the exit-leaning side is thinner and more diffuse, with Head office & management consultancy the largest single cluster (31 companies, 1.6x). This is a single-day snapshot, not a trend — but the Accommodation concentration is the sharpest signal in the detail behind today's figures.
Real estate accounts for a striking 1.4x share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings — 120 companies out of 601, the largest single cohort in the mix — with accommodation businesses showing a sharper 1.8x skew on a thinner base of 13. On the exit side, employment & recruitment firms are modestly over-represented (1.9x, but only 10 companies) alongside a broader retail tilt (31 companies, 1.3x); re-ratings overall are down on the previous day, and with 92% of the day's movement concentrated in a single session, this reads as an early snapshot worth watching, not yet a trend.
Film & media production turned up twice over, showing up at roughly double its share among exit-leaning re-ratings and nearly double again on the credit-leaning side — a rare sector appearing on both flanks at once, though on counts this small (11 and 14 companies) it's an early read, not a trend. Pattern-wise, Sector laggard led the day's fresh matches at 91, with Quiet compounder and Slow bleed close behind; worth watching whether that holds once more of the day's re-ratings land.
Civil engineering and telecommunications both ran at roughly 2.2x their usual share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings — a modest ten and seven companies respectively, so treat it as an early snapshot rather than a trend, but the direction is clean: live register events, not stale guesswork, pointing to borrowing appetite rather than sale intent. On the exit side, Wales stands out at 2.0x its share of this period's re-ratings (69 companies) alongside a smaller architecture & engineering skew — worth watching if it persists tomorrow. The "both-up" cohort (295 firms) is churn, not a third market, and we're leaving it out of the story.
Volumes dropped sharply overnight (560 re-rated vs 4,903 the day before), so treat today as an early snapshot rather than a trend. The firmest thread in it: East region exit-leaning re-ratings ran at twice their usual share of the day's activity, with Financial services also over-represented — both on modest counts, so worth watching rather than calling yet. On the credit side nothing sector-wise stood out, though North West names took a notably larger slice of borrowing-appetite re-ratings than their overall footprint would suggest.
Legal & accounting firms carried nearly twice their share of today's exit-leaning re-ratings, the firmest skew in an early, single-day snapshot of 4,943 live register updates. Real estate dominated the credit-leaning cohort by volume (171 companies, 1.4x its share), alongside accommodation at 1.5x — both read as borrowing appetite, not distress. With one day's data we'd call this a signal worth watching rather than a trend; the sector-level detail behind these counts is where it gets interesting.
Re-ratings are a fraction of yesterday's volume, but one cohort stands out early: accommodation businesses are taking a 1.9x share of today's credit-leaning re-ratings, on 17 live register events — a thin sample, but a clean signal of borrowing appetite rather than distress. On the exit side, advertising & market research and legal & accounting firms are also punching above their weight (2.2x and 2.0x respectively, albeit on single-digit counts), hinting at early sale-readiness in professional-services niches worth watching as more register events land.
Scientific R&D firms are taking the clearest skew towards borrowing appetite this period — 1.7x their share of all re-ratings, though the underlying count (17) is modest, so treat it as an early snapshot rather than a trend. Telecommunications shows up on both sides at once (1.6x exit-leaning, 1.5x credit-leaning), which reads as a sector in flux rather than a single direction. With 98% of today's 15,310 re-ratings landing in one day, this is a first read on live register activity, not an established pattern — worth watching, not yet calling.
Telecommunications carried more than double its normal share of today's exit-leaning re-ratings, though on just 11 companies it's an early snapshot rather than a called trend. The firmer signal is the pattern layer: 422 live sector-laggard matches led a day dominated by a handful of credit-appetite archetypes (debtor-heavy, slow-bleed) alongside quiet-compounder activity — worth the underlying detail if you're watching any of those sectors.
Re-ratings jumped sharply overnight (12,974 vs 617), and within that early snapshot electronics manufacturing stands out on the credit-leaning side at 1.7x its share of this period's re-ratings — worth watching but still a single day's data. Employment & recruitment and accommodation also show mild credit-leaning concentration, while Sector laggard was the most common fresh pattern match (451 companies); nothing on the exit side or by region rose above noise yet, so treat this as an early signal rather than a trend.
Yorkshire & North East stood out on the credit side: of 119 companies newly leaning toward secured debt, the region's 16 took 1.7 times the share it held of the day's re-ratings overall, and specialised construction tilted the same way at 1.5x, though on only six companies. The sale side cooled sharply, with 68 companies leaning toward exit against 178 the day before, and its one sector skew, IT & software services at 1.9x, rests on just six companies, so it is a hint rather than a call. Re-ratings overall rose to 1,110 from 952, yet both directional groups shrank, so a busier day produced a thinner signal.
Re-ratings jumped by about a third to 42,217, yet the directional signal was narrow: the clearest skew was toward credit, where Northern Ireland took 1.5x its share of this period's re-ratings (139 companies) and Accommodation 1.4x (114), which suggests borrowing appetite rather than any solvency story. Insurance showed the highest lift at 1.9x, but on only 28 companies we would treat it as a watch item. On the buyout side, leads fell from 5,107 to 4,084 with no regional pattern, and a mild tilt toward information services, publishing and telecoms rests on small counts.
Information services carried more than double its share of today's exit-leaning re-ratings, with printing and motor trade close behind — a small but clean cluster on live filing activity rather than stale data. On the credit side, scientific R&D and accommodation stood out for borrowing appetite, and Northern Ireland punched above its weight regionally; note this is a single day's snapshot, so treat it as an early read rather than a trend. Full company-level detail is available to subscribers who want the names behind the numbers.
Electronics manufacturing stands out on today's re-ratings, taking more than double its usual share of the credit-leaning cohort — worth flagging, though on just ten companies it's an early read, not a trend. Northern Ireland shows the firmest regional pattern, over-represented on both the exit and credit sides at once, while the "Sector laggard" archetype led pattern activity with 279 fresh matches. With 93% of today's movement landing in a single day, treat this as a snapshot worth watching, not yet a called shift.
Insurance carried an outsized share of yesterday's credit-leaning re-ratings (2.3x), alongside smaller but consistent skews in electronics manufacturing and telecoms — worth flagging even though the day's totals (9,065 re-rated) are a single-day snapshot, not yet a trend. On the exit side, information services led the sale-likelihood cohort at nearly three times its share of the day's re-ratings; regionally the only concentration worth naming was Northern Ireland's tilt toward borrowing appetite. Early days, but these are the sharpest lines in an otherwise diffuse day — the detail sits behind the count.
Re-ratings picked up pace today (8,196, versus 7,329 the day before), and the standout concentration sits on the credit-leaning side: accommodation businesses took 1.5x their share of this period's re-ratings among companies leaning toward secured debt, a broader cohort of 20. The sharpest lift overall — financial auxiliary services at 2.3x on the exit-leaning side — rests on only 11 companies, so it's a pointer worth watching rather than a settled read; with 96% of today's movement landing in a single day, this is an early snapshot, not an established pattern. Pattern-matching echoed the same broad-based tone, with sector laggard (195) and quiet compounder (140) the most frequent live archetype matches, rather than any one storyline dominating.
Early snapshot, but the standout is clear: information services and telecoms are each pulling roughly double their share of today's exit-leaning re-ratings, alongside a smaller lift in head-office/consultancy — worth flagging even on modest counts. On the credit side, Northern Ireland stands out at 1.6x its share of today's credit-leaning cohort, with accommodation the only sector showing a mild skew. With 95% of activity landing in a single day, treat this as a first read rather than a trend — but the exit-lean pattern in information services and telecoms is the sharpest signal on the board.
Re-rated volumes doubled day-on-day, but treat that as an early snapshot rather than a trend given it's concentrated on one day. The firmest signal is on the credit side: construction (buildings) is running at 1.7x its share of today's re-ratings among companies leaning toward secured borrowing, a cluster worth watching as the pattern data (16 Z-distress, 13 sector-laggard matches) builds out. Exit-leaning activity was led more thinly by head office and management consultancy firms (1.6x), with no notable regional skew on either side.
Re-ratings rose to 31,706 this week (from 27,498), and the standout is where borrowing appetite is concentrating: accommodation businesses and Northern Ireland registrations each took 1.5x their normal share of this period's credit-leaning re-ratings, well ahead of the more diffuse showing across insurance, scientific R&D and financial auxiliary services. On the exit-leaning side, legal & accounting and civil engineering firms were modestly over-represented (1.3-1.4x) among the 2,992 companies tilting toward sale, though with smaller counts behind them these are worth watching rather than betting on. Sector-laggard was the most-matched live pattern (748), with quiet-compounder and debtor-heavy close behind — a reminder that this week's real story is concentration in borrowing appetite, not a broad shift in exit intent.